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Monday, July 13, 2009

Nonresidential construction expected to lag in 2010 - South Florida Business Journal:

South Florida Business Journal - by Lauren B. Cooper Birmingham Business Journal

A survey of national construction forecasters showed commercial construction is projected to drop significantly through 2010.

The American Institute of Architect’s Consensus Construction Forecast reported nonresidential construction is expected to drop by 16 percent in 2009 and by another 12 percent in 2010, according to a news release.

“This nonresidential downturn is shaping up to be the deepest decline in nonresidential activity in over a generation.” said Kermit Baker, chief economist for the AIA. “However, we’re beginning to see some moderation in the trends in design billings at architecture firms, so we hopefully are nearing the bottom of this cycle.”

The forecas breaks down commercial construction like this:

  • Retail construction is expected to drop 28 percent in 2009 and by nearly 13 percent in 2010.
  • Hotel construction will drop by nearly 26 percent in 2009 and by nearly 17 percent in 2010.
  • Office buildings are expected to decrease by nearly 22 percent this year and by more than 17 percent next year.
  • Industrial facilities construction is expected to drop by a fraction of a percent in 2009 and by nearly 29 percent in 2010.

“Commercial facilities such as hotels, retail establishments and offices will feel the decline most dramatically,” said Baker. “The institutional market will fare much better as stimulus funding becomes available for education, health care and government facilities.”

Institutional construction broke down like this:

  • Amusement and recreation is expected to drop nearly 21 percent in 2009 and by more than 8 percent in 2010.
  • Construction of religious facilities should fall by nearly 11 percent in 2009 and by nearly 7 percent in 2010.
  • Education construction is projected to decrease by more than 8 percent this year and by a fraction of a percent next year.
  • Construction of health care facilities is expected to drop by 1.5 percent in 2009 and by a fraction of a percent in 2010.
  • Public safety construction is expected to rise 1.7 percent in 2009 and drop a fraction of a percent in 2010.

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